基于地方政府信用评级角度的城投债发行利差分析-经济学金融学专业论文.docxVIP

万方数据 万方数据 摘要 近年来，随着我国城镇化建设的发展，基础设施建设规模的扩张，地方政府赖以融资 的城投债发行数量和发行规模均创新高。但在我国现行的财政税收体制下，地方政府财权 和事权不匹配，入不敷出现象严重，大量的债务使得地方政府的债务风险濒临失控。在此 情况下，城投债的违约风险也逐渐暴露。城投债由于受到地方政府的隐性担保，享有财政 补贴和税收优惠等政策，其发行定价已不同于一般的信用债，对利率不敏感导致的城投债 发行成本较高正是城投债面临本息偿付违约的重要风险之一。 鉴于城投债发行定价与地方政府之间的紧密关系，本文是从信用评级机构对地方政府 的信用评级角度来研究城投债的发行利差问题的。信用评级机构主要是从经济发展、财政 收支等方面对地方政府的综合实力和信用进行评价衡量的。因而本文选取了相对应的 GDP、总存款和公共财政收入等指标作为解释变量构建模型来分析其对城投债发行利差的 影响。实证结果表明，由地方政府信用评级角度引出的城投债发行所在区域的 GDP、总存 款、地方公共财政收入以及财政自给率等指标对城投债的发行利差有着显著的影响。地方 的 GDP 越高，一般其城投公司发行的城投债的发行利差也越小，此外，衡量地方金融资 源丰富程度的总存款和衡量地方财政实力及偿还能力的地方公共财政收入和财政自给率 对城投债的发行利差的影响也都是显著负相关的。与此同时，本文的研究还发现，衡量城 投公司综合经营状况的权益报酬率、资产负债率等指标对于城投债的发行利差是没有显著 影响的，由此也说明城投债对于地方经济实力和财政收支的巨大依赖性。本文的最后就城 投债的发展、规范转型结合本文的结论给出了一些政策建议。 关键词：城投债；地方政府信用评级；发行利差 I Abstract In recent years, with the rapid development of urbanization in our country and the infrastructure construction scale expansion, the quantity and scale of the quasi- municipal bonds which is the most important financing channel of the local governments are higher than ever. But in our current fiscal and taxation system, the fiscal power and administrative responsibilities of the local governments are not equal, the situation of the fiscal deficit of the local governments is rather serious, the huge debts make a thing that the debt risk of the local governments is about to be out of control. In this case, the default risk of the quasi- municipal bonds is gradually exposed. Due to the local government’s invisible guarantee, financial subsidies and preferential tax policies, the pricing of the quasi- municipal bonds is so different from the general credit bonds and it is not sensitive to the market interest rate. As a result, its issuing cost is much higher which leads to the risk of repayment of principal and interest. Considering the closed relationship between the pricing of quasi-bonds and the local government, this paper will study the issuing spread of quasi-bonds in the perspective of credit rating of the local government which is from t