基于改进支持向量机回归的地震预测方法研究-计算机软件与理论专业论文.docxVIP

AbstractAbstract Abstract Abstract The destructive force of earthquake disasters is extremely great，it always occur inadvertently,it comes with great economic loss and great number of casualties．Also， China is one of the counties who has much earthquake activities．Doing well in earthquake prediction and disaster reduction is a necessary choice to sustain the development in our country．In order tO predict the occurrence of earthquakes， researches from every country are all study on the reasoll why earthquake occur and its regularity．After SO many years of research，it shown that earthquake has certain regularity in a region of strong earthquake event，which has certain periodicity．The discovery of such a rule for earthquake prediction research work provides a very good idea． There are many methods can be applied to earthquake prediction，wavelet function can reflect the non--stationary signal characteristic of the time-frequency domain．In this paper，at first，using wavelet transform in the time series of energy which the moderately strong earthquake activity release，then get the characteristics of earthquake activity in different time scale，then using the wavelet coefficient and the active period of the earthquake which obtained through the wave transform to do the further research． The sample of earthquake is dispersed and the number of it is quite small，it is difficult to use the exact formula or methods to expression its regularity．While the support vector machine overcome the disadvantage exist in traditional methods，and it has beRer prediction abilities，it fits the research on modeling and prediction of earthquake discrete data，the study also found that the predictive ability of SVR is better than neural network algorithm and other traditional statistical learning method． In order to simplify the complexity of calculation，This paper used the improved support vector regression machines to predict the maximum magnitude，the improved SVR simplifies the complexity of