基于混沌时间序列的瓦斯涌出量预测研究-应用数学专业论文.docxVIP

Subject : The Research of Gas Emission Quantity Prediction Based On Chaotic Time Series Specialty : Applied Mathematics Name :SU Lin (Signature) Instructor: ZhANG Tian-jun QIAO Bao-ming (Signature) ABSTRACT Various factors with a complex relationship between them and much random disturbance composition affect the amount of mine gas emission, and there exists great difficulties in accurately predicting the mine gas emission, for the methane outflow law presents a dynamic nonlinear variation process. To simplify complexity, many scholars view it as a linear relationship between affecting factors, such as gas emission and coal seams depth, the thickness and gas pressure, and make prediction research on gas emission with the science statistics theory, analogy method and linear regression method. At present, the existing prediction methods have their own applicable conditions, but lack consideration on nonlinear variation process of the amount of gas emission. In addition, because of numerous affecting factors, it is impossible to consider all the influence factors while choosing predictors, and with certain subjectivity in the choice of prediction model. The development of Chaos theory makes it possible to select prediction models without establishing subjective model in advance and without consideration of the relationship between various affecting factors, but according to the objective law calculated from the sequence of the actual observation data, which can avoid subjectivity and increase the prediction precision and reliability. This paper attempts to forecast the gas emission using chaos time series forecasting method, and reconstructs phase spaces to the original time series of the amount of mine gas emission by choosing proper time delay ? and embedding dimension m . Identify the chaotic property of gas emission system with the calculation of the maximal Lyapunov exponent. At the same time, in allusion to the problem in C-C algorithms that rou