江西省能源供需缺口预测及对策研究-人口、资源与环境经济学专业论文.docxVIP

11 11 ji 摘要 能源，是~个回家国民经济发展的物质基础，也是未来世界各国的经济命 脉和争夺热点。能源，对一个国家、与一个区域的经济发展有着举足轻重的影 响。在经济全球化的背景下，能源，成了制约一固、一个区域经济发展的重要 因素。因此，选择科学、合理的预测模型，对能源供需缺口进行有效预测，为 区域能源发展战略的判定提供科学依据，具有重要的现实意义。 本文首先从江西省的能源条件及能源供需关系等方面，评价江西省能源消 费现状，分析能源与经济的相互关系;其次，运用 MATLAB 软件构建灰色 GM (1， 1) 模型和布朗非线性指数平滑模型，预测 2009 年…2020 年江西省能源消费量和供 给量;在 GM (1， l)模型和布朗非线性指数平滑模型的基础上，通过标准差权重计 算方法，构建组合预测模型，预测 2009 年…2020 年江西省能源供需缺口。结果 表明，组合预测模型具有预测准确度较高的特点，可在今后对能源的开来、利 用等综合方面，利用其进行预测。 最后，本论文根据江西省能源消费特点，借鉴国外能源发展战略，提出了 江西省能源发展的相关对策建议。 关键 iiJ: 能源消费:组合预测;供需缺口;能源对策。 Abstract ABSTRACT Energy is the essential material foundation of national economy，and is also a hotspot of economic lifeline for which every country will fight in the future，energy has self-evident effects on the economic development. With the background of economic globalization ，energy has become an irnportant factor which constraints the econornic development of countries all over the world ，so the effective forecasting of energy demand is very importan t. ln the first place，this thesis evaluated the present energy condition of Jiangxi Province，researched the. relationship between energy and economy qualitatively. According to the relationship between energy supply and demand ，this thesis analyzed the energy status quo in Jiangxi Province. Secondly，this thesis introduced the model constructing processes ，testing methods ，parameter selection and error evaluation criteria of gray model and Brown nonlinearity exponential smoothing model ，state the research background ，classification and weights calculation of combination forecasting mode l. 丁hirdly，this thesis used Matlab software to construct the GM (1，1)gray model and Brown nonlinear exponential smoothing model ，forecasted the ene唱y demand and supply in Jiangxi Province between 2009 to 2020，then constructed the combination forecasting model which was based on the results of two models above，used standard deviation method to forecast the energy gap in Jiangxi Province between 2