节能减排指标分解模型及在黑龙江省应用的研究-动力工程专业论文.docxVIP

哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位论文 哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位论文 - - II - Abstract Faced with the grim energy and environmental issues, Chinas 12th five-year plan has made a series of obligatory targets for energy conservation and emissions reduction, and decomposed to various provinces or regions. In order to complete the order for the twelfth five-year energy conservation and emissions reduction index of heilongjiang province and provide basis for the adjustment of industrial structure, the study on energy conservation and emissions reduction index decomposition model and application in Heilongjiang province has important significance. First, this paper puts forward a kind of energy conservation and emissions reduction index decomposition model. Impact factors are divided into two categories in this article.One is potential impact factor necessarily related to energy conservation and emissions reduction, such as nitrogen oxide emissions of unit energy consumption and nitrogen oxide emission reductionsof the policy. The other impact factors are added, which are need to be checked whether they are the main impact factors through the correlation analysis, such as GDP, per capita GDP, GDP of primary industry, GDP of secondary industry, GDP of tertiary industry, industrial GDP, primary energyintensity, per capita energy consumption, energy prices, energy consumption elasticity coefficient, population, urbanization rate. Secondly, impact factor of index decomposition is studied. According to the model created, select impact factor of index decomposition, and research impact factors on energy saving and emission reduction in energy consumption and pollutant emission reduction potential, economic development and population and urbanization. Using the method of energy intensity, per capita energy consumption method, elasticity coefficient method and sector analysis method forecast the energy demand is 148 to 166 million tons of standard coal. There is pressure on energy conservation and emissions reduct