中国新型农村养老保险制度发展的敏感性分析暨有限财政投入仿真研究.pdf

中国新型农村养老保险制度发展的敏感性分析暨有限财政投入仿真研究 米红/项洁雯 【专题名称】社会保障制度 【专 题 号】C41 【复印期号】2009 年 07 期 【原文出处】《社会保障研究》(京)2008 年 1 期第 127～144 页 【英文标题】A Sensitivity Analysis of Development in Chinas New Rural Endowment Insurance and Simulation of Limited Financial Input 【作者简介】米红，浙江大学公共管理学院教授；项洁雯，浙江大学公共管理学院社会保障专业博士研究生。 【内容提要】本文从影响我国农村社会养老保险制度的发展的人口经济等敏感性因素入手，结合养老保障体制建设的风险因素，分析我国农村社会养老 保险制度的推进正处于重要的、关键的历史时期。通过对我国农村人口老龄化程度的预测，基于 2005 年全国 1％人口抽样调查数据和 2006 年全国第二次农业普查数据，提出建立“有限财政”责任下的新型农村养老保险制度，并应用数理人口学、精算学、经济学等多学科方法 对到 2050 年的新型农村社会养老保险制度推进中涉及的制度覆盖率、缴费水平、保障水平和财政投入进行了政策仿真和敏感性研究，指出 我国新型农村社会养老保险制度应在有限财政的理念下，采取分区域、分群体的差异性非均衡的动态推进政策。 This paper pointed out that Chinas rural social endowment insurance system is in urgent to push forward but needs to be cautious by analyzing population and economic sensitivity factors which will influence sustainability of Chinas endowment insurance system，combined with construction risks of endowment insurance system. Based on forecasting of the ageing of the Chinas rural population, 2005 1％ sample survey data and 2006 the second agricultural census data, it forwards that the new rural endowment insurance by the concept of limited financial liability should be set, and mathematical demography, actuarial science, economics methods are used to simulate the number of participants and recipients, the system coverage, premium base, security level, and government subsidiaries. In addition, the article makes a scheme simulation of the promotion and the sensitivity. In the final recommendations of conclusions, it points out that the way of Chinas rural social endowment insurance system promotion should design to run under the differences among groups and disequilibrium propulsion by the concept of limited financial liability. T