巴黎银行-南非-宏观经济-南非宏观状况：摆弄泰勒-20180126-11页.pdfVIP

South Africa: Tinkering with Taylor  Various calibrations to the Taylor rule offer a mixed bag in terms of the South African Author: Reserve Bank’s prospective monetary policy in 2018. Jeffrey Schultz Senior Economist  With the inflation trajectory softer, the output gap set to close slowly and political risks abating, BNP Paribas South Africa we see room for doves on the monetary policy committee to reappear in the coming months.  We continue to expect 25bp cuts to the repo rate in March and May to end the year at 6.25%. Background: Revisiting the Taylor rule for South Africa 1 Still useful in assessing We revisit our previous work on developing various calibrations of the well-known ‘Taylor rule’ monetary policy for South African monetary policy (please ask for a copy of South Africa: The rules have changed, dated 2 June 2014). Historically, the rule was seen as useful in assessing the adequate level of policy rates in an economy and in helping to assess the performance of policymakers who target specific levels of inflation. The rule’s rigidity has been criticised over the years – particularly after the global financial crisis and even today, with monetary policy still ultra-lax for developed countries in the US and th