祁连山青海云杉对20世纪以来气候变化的响应分析-中国科学院青藏.DOC

祁连山青海云杉对20世纪50年代以来气候变化的响应分析 摘要：本文在研究区内选取了11个空间上的上限样点和两个坡面的7个垂直梯度的总共16个点的三百多株青海云杉，讨论了自有器测记录以来的时段，树木生长与气候因子之间的响应关系。结果显示，近三十年来各样点内单株树木与气候要素之间的响应关系发生了显著变化。即随着时间的变化，单株树木与降水存在的一致相关出现了减弱的趋势。而树木与温度之间则出现了明显的响应分异现象。借助不同响应组树木所建立的年表与月均温（特别是生长季内的温度）进行相关分析表明，在近半个世纪内二者存在明显的响应分异，且这种分异在统计上非常显著。此外，这种响应分异多出现在包含低频信号的标准年表里，而在高频信号上几乎没有。区域树木的响应变化和响应分异主要发生在20世纪80年代以后。其地域分布特点表现为：东部样点树木与温度的正相关关系不断增强，样点内出现响应分异的树木所占比例较高；而西部样点的树木与温度存在负相关关系，且不断增强，发生响应分异的树木在样点内的比例不高。在垂直高度上，海拔越高的树木受温度限制越强，响应分异就越明显。因此，在以后的树轮气候学研究中，我们必须考虑所选样点的树木在20世纪末期是否出现了分异问题，否则研究结果很有可能会不准确或出现明显错误。干旱胁迫可能是近半个世纪以来影响祁连山青海云杉响应不稳定的一个重要因素。 Abstract：??The instable relationship between Qinghai spruce and temperature and response divergence phenomena exist at most sites in Qilian Mts. It happened around 1980. At spatial scale, trees growing at east Qilian Mts. had increasing positive correlation with temperature and the ratio of response divergence also increased, trees from west Qilian Mts. had stronger negative correlation with temperature and low ratio of response divergence. Sites at the high elevation have the high ratio of response divergence. If we do not consider the instable relationship between trees and climate factor and ignore the response divergence within site, the dendroclimatological analysis might be wrong. Therefore, in future, it is necessary to consider the relationships between tree growth and climate factors, especially during the end of last century. In total, we used 342 Qinghai spruces trees which were sampled from 11spatial sites at upper tree line and 7 different elevation sites along two different slopes. Basing on this dataset, we discussed the relationship between tree growth and climate factor. The correlation relationships between every single tree and main climate factors have changed over time. Within a site, trees had consistent correlations with monthly precipitation, but the relationships decreased over time. The relationships between trees and monthly temperature, especially in growth season, had obv