基于运营组织的城市群轨道客流预测方法研究-交通运输规划与管理专业论文.docxVIP

武汉理工大学硕士学位论文Abstract 武汉理工大学硕士学位论文 Abstract The rail transit has the great traffic capacity，high speed，safe，punctual， comfortable and the environmental friendly characteristics，just because of these superiority which other traffic modes were unable to compare，the urban agglomeration will certainly first to consider to solve the problems such as traffic jaln and environment worsening and SO on through the construction of rail transit system．In recent years，our country has already spcd up the step of building rail transit system in the urban agglomeration． The domestic passenger flow forecasting methods are either based On the municipal transportation or the intercity transportation,and the completely fittest method of passenger flow forecasting in urban agglomeration have not been estabfished nOW．Considering that the urban agglomeration transportation has both the municipal transportation characteristic and regional transportation characteristic, this paper has been made Some improvements of the existing”four stages” forecasting method,proposed a forecasting method of passenger flow in urban agglomeration on the basis of operational organization,in order to promotes the scientificity and the mtionaiity of urban traffic plan and passenger flow forecasting in urban agglomeration． The improvements of the forecasting method of passenger flow in urban agglomeration on the basis of operational organization include： (1)The forecasting accuracy control program and method of passenger flow generation in urban agglomeration．On the basis of analyzing the passenger flow generation characteristics in urban agglomeration，this paper puts forward the“four stages”control program on passenger flow generation forecasting：traffic zone partition control、forecasting methods option、modeling accuracy control and results adjustment，discussed the accuracy control detailedly in every stage．For the results adjustment，it brings forward regional external transportation adjustment、spatial distribu