基于深度信念网络的短时交通流预测-应用统计学专业论文.docxVIP

AB AB STRACT T】?椭c congestion has become an important problem which restricts the positive operation of modem economic society．However,as a hot research of contemporary intelligent transportation systems，the real-time， accurate and efficient short-time traffic flow forecasting technique is the pressing needs of strong measures to easing traffic congestion and improve social benefits．It could make maximum use of urban road network capacity，reduce environmental pollution and energy consumption，and reduce the probability of traffic accidents．Therefore，a further research on short—term traffic flow forecasting methods has both theoretical and practical significance． Firstly,this paper recalled and summarized the past of research results，and then compared the forecast effects and the strengths and weaknesses of various short-term traffic flow forecasting methods． Secondly，accounting for the nonstationarity，non-linearity，and high—uncertainty of the short-term traffic flow sequence，a combined forecasting model based on wavelet theory and depth faith network had been introduced and boiled．Thirdly,to demonstrate the validity of the combined forecasting model，it had been applied to predict the short—term traffic flow about A3 8 road in England．Moreover,after comparing the combined forecasting model with other traditional models，this paper summarized the advantages and disadvantages and scopes of different models． Main work and conclusions of this study are as follows： (1)Based on the analysis of A3 8 road’S traffic flow data,we demonstrated that there are four main characteristics of traffic flow sequence：a pronounced cyclical variation，sequence correlations， aggregation effects and strong—uncertainties； (2)In order to improve the data quality，we used history substitution method to repair traffic data outliers and missing values，applied the 万方数据 wavelet wavelet analysis to eliminate the sequence noise，and took normalization method to eliminate scale differences． (3)Deep