基于系统动力学的火力发电企业利润预测研究-会计学专业论文.docxVIP

华北电力大学硕士学位论文 华北电力大学硕士学位论文 I I 摘 要 火力发电企业是我国国民经济的主力军，近几年来随着电力企业改革的不断 深化和市场经济的迅猛发展，使其在发展过程中遇到越来越多的难题，许多企业 陷入了难以维持经营的困局中。在复杂多变的环境下，利润预测能够为企业的发 展、决策提供依据从而降低经营风险，使企业在市场竞争中立于不败之地，因而 具有十分重要的意义。企业采用的传统的利润预测方法无法解决非线性、动态性、 时滞性等问题，并且预测中对数据处理要求高、依赖性强，而系统动力学的方法 在一定程度上可以弥补这些方法的缺陷，避免因这些问题造成的预测不准确，因 此用系统动力学的方法对火力发电企业的利润预测进行研究是十分必要的。 本文首先概述了各种传统的利润预测方法以及它们存在的弊端，同时对系统 动力学的理论进行了详细的介绍；其次针对火力发电企业自身的特点，将系统动 力学的理论和方法引入火力发电企业的利润预测中，重点研究基于系统动力学的 火力发电企业利润预测模型；最后以 S 公司为例，根据企业的实际情况对模型进 行改造、组合，构建一个完整的有实用性的利润预测系统从而实现模拟研究，并 将模拟结果与传统方法的预测结果进行简单的比较，进一步说明系统动力学方法 预测的准确性、合理性，为企业发展提出合理建议。 关键词：火力发电企业；传统利润预测方法；系统动力学方法；系统动力学模型 II II Abstract Thermal power enterprises are main forces of the national economy. In recent years, with the deepening reform of electric power enterprise and the rapid development of market economy, many enterprises are facing more and more problems in the development process, and some of them even entrapping into a difficult dilemma in business. Under the complicated and changeable environment, for the development of enterprises and decision-making， profit forecasts can provide the basis so as to reduce the management risk, and make the enterprise impregnable in the market competition, thus it is of very vital significance. But the prediction of corporate profits in our country adopted by the traditional methods cannot solve nonlinear, dynamic and time-lag problems, requiring highly and depending strongly of the data processing. And system dynamics methods can make up the defects of these methods to some extent, avoiding the forecast inaccuracy caused by these problems, therefore, using the method of system dynamics for the power company profit forecast study is very necessary. This paper outlines the various traditional profit forecast methods and their shortcomings, system dynamics theory are introduced in detail at the same time; Secondly, according to the characteristics of thermal power enterprise, leading the theory and method of system dynamics into the thermal power enterpr