扩大城镇基本养老保险覆盖面的政治经济学解析.docVIP

　 扩大城镇基本养老保险覆盖面的政治经济学分析 ——主要制约因素的计量检验 文|李薇|复旦大学经济学硕士、上海《城市管理》杂志社 （原载于《老龄问题研究》2007年第8期） [摘要] ９０年代初以来，中国致力于建立以公共支柱为主体的多支柱体系，采取社会统筹和个人账户相结合的部分积累制；但个人账户“空账”运行的养老保险制度实际为现收现付制（陈建奇，2006）。国际上也认为１９９９年以后的中国养老保险制度仅有第一支柱（NDC）。[1]要维持现有的养老金支付水平不变，当参保职工人数的增长未能超过同期领取养老金的离退休退职人数的增长时，短期内唯有提高保险覆盖率，才能实现部分积累制。因而，扩大现有社会保障整体框架和项目覆盖面（扩面）被认为是我国养老保险制度结构性改革的前提。从分散风险和扩大社会公平角度看，扩面又是改革的重要目标之一。但从目前的国际经验看，在包括中国在内的许多国家，建立多支柱养老金体系的结构性改革并未能显著扩大劳动人口覆盖范围。（表1）由于NDC同时具备代际和代内再分配功能，引发的政治冲突更为复杂，为改革和扩面带来了不可忽视的障碍。近年来 ，虽然国内理论界侧重于实现社会公平的政治经济学研究不乏对制约扩面的非经济因素尤其是政治因素的分析，但多为制度分析和定性分析。本文尝试通过建立经济计量模型和统计性描述，以中国城镇职工养老保险改革为例，研究政治因素或经济因素 中的政治成分与养老保险覆盖面的静态和动态关系，对相关假设进行实证分析。 [关键词] 城镇养老保险覆盖率 劳动关系 非正规就业 补偿政治 公共支出偏好 中图分类号: D57 文献标识码：A [Abstract]: Since early 1990s, efforts have been made by China to construct a multi-pillar insurance system with public pillar at the core. The system adopts partial-accumulation model combining social pooling and individual account. However, the idle individual account indicates the system is in reality a pay-as-you-go one.(Chen Jianqi,2006) It’s internationally recognized that only the first pillar existed in China even after 1999.(NDC) [1] As long as the increase of covered workers don’t exceed that of pensioners, to maintain current payment level and realize partial-accumulation system within short time will mainly rely on coverage expansion. In view of risk diversification and social justice, coverage expansion is also the goal of reform. However, according to international experiences(including china),the reform has yet to remarkably expand its coverage of laborers.(see China in chart1).With its re-distribution effects across generations and with-in generation, NDC will arouse complicated political conflicts which have developed to be assignable factors hampering reform and coverage expansion. Recently, though relevant studies attaching importance to social justice in