国际资本流动下的中国货币政策效应分析-金融学专业论文.docxVIP

II II Abstract Since the 1990s, with the rapid development of world economy globalization and science and technology, the total size of international capital flows expanded rapidly, showing more speed and diverse forms characteristic. International capital flows don’t only bring in opportunities for a countrys development, but also produce a certain negative impact .A large number of international capital inflows and outflows increase the risk of a countrys economy, and weaken the effectiveness of national monetary policy, and even cause the financial crisis. In recent years, The capital profit-seeking prompted a large number of international capital continue to flow into China through several ways, RMB is facing the pressure of appreciation。The central bank must stand ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to prevent the appreciation of the RMB, leading to the increase of money supply, increasing the domestic excess liquidity, monetary policy effectiveness is reduced. Therefore, the article has important practical significance, which can provide a reference to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy. Firstly, the article started from the impact of international capital flows on monetary policy, and expounded the theory of international capital flows under the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and deeper analysis of the methods of international capital flows to monetary policy. It provided a monetary policy reference for monetary authorities. Then, we built a revised offset coefficient model, which used data to reflect the impact of international capital flows on monetary policy .Lastly, we selected 40 data from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2010,and built a seven-variable VAR mode to test the impact of international capital flows on the effectiveness of monetary policy. The results showed that international capital flows had long-term effects on output, exchange rate, money supply, asset prices, and domestic credit