哈尔滨国内旅游市场客源分析与预测-公共管理专业论文.docxVIP

哈尔滨工业大学公共管理硕士学位论文 哈尔滨工业大学公共管理硕士学位论文 II II Abstract With the rapid development, tourism industry of Harbin has become strategic pillar industries. Fully tapping the potential value of statistical resources and deep studying the tourism market demand characteristics provide tourism industry of Harbin strong practical value which is beneficial to grasping the industry development context accurately and making strategic decisions legitimately. In addition, tapping and studying the tourism market is conductive to enhance the core competitiveness of the tourism industry and to provide more quality servi ces for tourists. The main content of the article is studying the structural characteristics of domestic tourists who visiting Harbin. In order to provide basis for decision -making which include optimizing the structure of the tourism industry, improving t he tourism planning, promoting the development of the tourism market and improve the quality of tourism services, it is necessary to clear the positioning, predict the flow of tourists, explore the influence of factors of market demand and found out the direction of development. After accessing to many related literatures, based on the original data of the tourism sample survey in Harbin from 2008 to 2011, I use the Spatial and Temporal Distribution Index to analyze the stability of the source structure at first. Secondly, I use the Boston Matrix Model to position the tourist source market. Thirdly, I use the Gray GM (1, 1) Model to predict the domestic tourists in 2012 and 2013 tourists. At last, I use the gray relational analysis method and the basic descriptive analysis method to study the factors that impact the source markets. The results show that: First, structure of the domestic tourism market of Harbin is relatively stable. The main source markets appear to the diversification trend. The analysis of the source markets has a strong reference value. Second, the domestic tourist market of Harbin showing the source