海口市传染病预警效果评价及其影响因素研究-管理科学与工程专业论文.docxVIP

ABSTRACT At present， establishment of automatic early warning system in 由.e infectious diseases，which is based on 也e rea1-time r，叩orting information of infectious diseases and historical 叩idemic 也钮， can boost early刑arning capabilities in the monitoring of infectious diseases 叩idemic in ourωm町;thereby it can din削sh the impact on 由e humans well-being and the socio-economic developments from infectious diseases. However，the possible influential factors of early warning effect have been ana1ysed 良 deeply 伽rough the related explorations and retrospective validation studies. In addition， eva1uation studies of early war四ng systems have made progress，but how to analyze comprehensively and balance the evaluation ωntents as well as 由eir indexes， and then how to effectively apply to evaluate our existing early warning system in the infectious diseases outbreak w町e still needed ωC盯ry out 伽e further practice and research. The 由esis carried out the descriptive analysis chiefly through five aspects，which were the r叩orting information quality of infetious diseases in Haikou fom 2004ω 2009，the rl叩orting quality of event-related infectious diseases cases，the history r叩orting level，也e occupational distribl剧。n of JI叩orters on the public health emergency events and 由e basic situation of the application in the system r叩ectively， combined with the the exc叩tional case analysis of early warning charts，in order to explore the influential factors of 也e system. The evaluation indicators of alert effect were sensitivity，positive prediction value and the lead time，which w时e for 也e evaluation of the running early-warning system. The conclusions can be drawn: 1. The r，叩orting quali可 is one of the important influence factors on 由eeffiωt of early-waming. 2. The historical reports level of the infectious diseases，to some extent，also affect the effect of 阳rly哨创沮ing，but it 鼻 doesnt inf1unce the effect of the the single case disease earlywarning. 3