流感传播和控制的数学模型研究.pptVIP

预防传染病蔓延的手段 ? (日接触率)? ? 卫生水平? ?(日治愈率)? ? 医疗水平? 传染病不蔓延的条件——s01/? 降低 s0 提高 r0 提高阈值 1/? 降低 ?(=?/?) ? ?, ? ? 群体免疫 Transmission between individuals R0 Basic Reproduction ratio （基本再生数） Average number of secondary cases caused by 1 infectious individual during its entire infectious period in a fully susceptible population Reproduction ratio, R0 R0 = 3 R0 = 0.5 禽流感的数学模型 S I R A E Sp Ip 传播框图 人群 禽类 X，Y： denote the susceptible birds, the birds infected with the avian influenza S，B ：the susceptible humans and the humans that are infected with the wild avia