流感传播和控制的数学模型研究.ppt

预防传染病蔓延的手段 ? (日接触率)? ? 卫生水平? ?(日治愈率)? ? 医疗水平? 传染病不蔓延的条件——s01/? 降低 s0 提高 r0 提高阈值 1/? 降低 ?(=?/?) ? ?, ? ? 群体免疫 Transmission between individuals R0 Basic Reproduction ratio （基本再生数） Average number of secondary cases caused by 1 infectious individual during its entire infectious period in a fully susceptible population Reproduction ratio, R0 R0 = 3 R0 = 0.5 禽流感的数学模型 S I R A E Sp Ip 传播框图 人群 禽类 X，Y： denote the susceptible birds, the birds infected with the avian influenza S，B ：the susceptible humans and the humans that are infected with the wild avian influenza. H： denotes the humans infected with the mutant avian influenza; 以往简单模型 H7N9 模型建立 Xiao Y., Sun X., Tang S., Wu J., Transmission potential of the novel avian influenza A(H7N9) infection in mainland China J. Theor. Biol. 352(2014)1–5 模型建立 With As of April 26, 2013, the China Ministry of Agriculture reported that 68,060 bird and environmental specimens have been tested, 46 (0.07\%) were confirmed H7N9-positive by culture We thus assume that A fact: on prevalence in poultry 数据 参数估计 Using the Kaplan–Meier (KM) method to data available, we obtained the estimation for the mean time from the date of illness onset to death as13days,leading to disease-related death rate α =1/13. recovery rate γ =1/ 11 Effect of various Intervention timing and intensity Prediction of the next outbreak Prediction of the next outbreak The periodic infection of poultry may induce the second outbreak in human population. We estimate the reproduction number for human-to-human transmission as 0.467 (95\% CI 0.387-0.651). Simulation results indicate that approximate twofold of the current human-to-human transmission rate or periodic outbreaks of avian influenza in poultry may induce an outbreak in human. Though the recent limited transmission potential of the novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus, a new outbreak may be possible due to virus mutation and adapti