国内外电网大面积停电的规律统计及应急体系评价-电力系统及其自动化专业论文.docxVIP

华北电力大学工程硕十专业学位论文摘 华北电力大学工程硕十专业学位论文 摘 要 大面积停电事故一旦发生将会对社会和经济带来灾难性的影响，但是依据系统论与 可靠性的观点，每个系统不会有100％的可靠性，因此大面积停电总是不可避免的。本 文通过对国内外大面积停电进行原因分析，对大停电事故的经验教训进行总结，研究归 纳出发生大面积停电的一般性规律；运用仿真再现的方法，分析了河南大停电的关键过 程，对以后大面积停电的仿真工作做出了有益探索；利用层次分析法和模糊综合评判法， 分析和建立应急体系评估的指标体系，并对应急体系的建设和完善提出了合理化建议。 关键词：大停电，应急体系，层次分析法，模糊综合评判法 ABSTRACT Occasional large—scale blackouts will bring a devastating impact on the social and economic， but blackout is inevitable because each system is not entirely reliable based on system theory and reliability point of view．Through analysis of blackouts’cause OCCUlTed at home and abroad and the conclusion of the experiences and lessons of blackouts，the paper summarizes the general laws of the blackout．Henan province(in China)blackout’S key process is analyzed in use of simulation methods，and this practice made useful exploration for the future simulation work．The index of emergency disposal system assessment is analyzed and established by AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method，also some rational proposals are made for the building and perfecting of emergency disposal system in this paper． Meng Haijun(power system and its automation) Directed by prof．Zhang Jianhua KEY WORDS：blackout，emergency disposal system,AHP,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation 华北电力大学工程硕十专业学位论文摘 华北电力大学工程硕十专业学位论文 摘 要 大面积停电事故一旦发生将会对社会和经济带来灾难性的影响，但是依据系统论与 可靠性的观点，每个系统不会有100％的可靠性，因此大面积停电总是不可避免的。本 文通过对国内外大面积停电进行原因分析，对大停电事故的经验教训进行总结，研究归 纳出发生大面积停电的一般性规律；运用仿真再现的方法，分析了河南大停电的关键过 程，对以后大面积停电的仿真工作做出了有益探索；利用层次分析法和模糊综合评判法， 分析和建立应急体系评估的指标体系，并对应急体系的建设和完善提出了合理化建议。 关键词：大停电，应急体系，层次分析法，模糊综合评判法 ABSTRACT Occasional large—scale blackouts will bring a devastating impact on the social and economic， but blackout is inevitable because each system is not entirely reliable based on system theory and reliability point of view．Through analysis of blackouts’cause OCCUlTed at home and abroad and the conclusion of the experiences and lessons of blackouts，the paper summarizes the general laws of the blackout．Henan province(in China)bl