国有股流通对二级市场的影响分析以及合理减持方案的理论基础-政治经济学专业论文.docxVIP

摘 摘 要 l f国有股问题在中国股票资本市场上存在由来已久，但减持国有股则是政府 在近几年出于完善资本市场融资机制、弥补社会保障资金缺口、以及解决国有控 股上市公司企业改革等因素才提出来的。国有股减持方案经历了净资产定价、市 值定价和折让配售等三个阶段，虽然市场化程度有所提高，但是减持的效果不太 理想。 本文首先分析了国有股流通预期对二级市场的负面影响，从流通预期比重．_一 对上证综指的回归分析，定量显示流通预期扩大对二级流通市场的负面影响，并 从定性的角度，从庄家炒作成本加大、二级市场场内资金缺口扩大和缺乏套利抑 制机制等三个方面阐述了产生负面影响的成因。 然后本文在此基础上，重点讨论了国有股减持的折让配售方案、股权调整 类方案以及笔者认为最可行的权证组合类方案及各自的设计理论基础。笔者从定 量的角度分析了，折让配售的定价基础是流通性溢价等于流通性折价：股权调整 类方案对上市公司的财务影响，最佳折股比例的确定应当使得调整前后二级市场 的价格相等；权证组合类方案中标的股票市价确定的合理范围，和备兑权证的执 行价格的确定等一系列减持方案在理论上最需要解决的问题，从而也使本文在理 论上和实践上都有一定的指导操作意义， 【分类号】F832．5 【关键词】国有股减持：流通性溢折价；最佳折股比例 l／i 。，’。 07 ABSTRACTThe ABSTRACT The problem of State—Owned Shares(SOSs)has been existed from the setup of capital market in China，however,resolving the circulation of SOSs for those listed state—owned enterprises has not been put forward until recent years just for the sake of the maturization of capital market mechanism，the recuperation of social welfare gap， and the corporate reform of those enterprises in China．Plans for the circulation of SOSs have been transformed for several times from equity pricing method，market pricing method to discounted target—selling method．Although those plans have enhanced each time to have more market liquidity,the effects of all those plans are not as what has been expected． This dissertation novelly deals with the negative effect of the circulation expectation of SOSs upon the secondary market．From the regression analysis of the circulation expectation ratio with Shanghai Stock Exchange(SHSE)index，the thesis found out that those two variables have negative relationship with each other,then it gives out some reasons to explain this phenomenon，which include the augment of speculation cost for those big share holders，the enlargement of secondary market capital gap，and the lack ofarbitrage suspension mechanism． Then，the thesis places great emphasis upon the three plans and their respective theoretical operating and designing basis、With the discounted target—selling method， the pricing mechan