贵金属投资技术分析英文版30.pptVIP

Operating Thoughts on Precious Metals Market under Uncertainty Tan Yaling China Forex Investment Research Institute Shanghai Futures Exchange Precious Metals International Seminar May 28th, 2013 Situation analysis and clear reasoning under a context of uncertainty 1. Complicated situations: too simple and short-sighted arguing and lots of platitudes; 2. Unprecedented circumstances: conventional, superficial and scripted estimations; 3. Worst nature in a century: single sided and partial judgments fueled by public opinions; US Dollar is a powerful currency that boasts the capabilities and insights to govern the market (very strong position). US Dollar is also a problematic currency that is built on the contradicts and risks arising from the uneven basis and global plundering (huge risk). I. Basis of short-term gold unchanged 1. Supported by liquidity 2. Complemented by the reserve policy of the central bank 3. Fueled by speculative behaviors 4. Inherently functioning as a hedging tool II. Hardly changed medium-term tendency 1. US dollar-denominated product 2. Long-term risk resistance capability of US dollar 3. The basis of foreign exchange reserves III. Long-term prospect needed to be changed 1. A metal must be subject to the financial structure; the gold standard system never comes back. 2. The price system serves for the value structure; the gold belongs to the system of US dollar. 3. Global financial structure is shaped by the strategic definition of US dollars; a new situation of tripartite confrontation. 美元 石油 黄金 USD Gold Oil Observation on gold investment opportunities What opportunities are created by a dollar-dominated era? What drives the dollar depreciation strategy? What is the purpose of the dollar reserve strategy? How is the dollar competition strategy designed? Will the Dollar denomination stay the