蛛网模型在经济活动中的应用毕业论文.doc

蛛网模型在经济活动中的应用 THE COBWEB MODEL APPLICATION IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES 指导老师姓名： 申请学位级别：学士 论文提交日期：2014年6月12日 摘 要 蛛网模型是一个典型的动态经济分析模型，主要用于分析一些生产周期比较长的产品的产量和价格之间的波动关系。本文介绍了我国近几年经济发展状况，学习了前人对我国经济的研究，总结了蛛网模型的思想和意义。另外，还介绍了凯恩斯货币需求理论还有前人们研究出的货币供给函数有哪些。货币是交易的媒介，货币供应量对经济的增长也有着至关重要的作用。本文用货币流通速度代表货币需求量，根据我国2006年-2012年的数据分别对货币流通速度、货币供应量与利率的关系，然后运用Matlab软件画出货币流通速度、货币供应量和利率的蛛网模型，并进行分析。结果证明，随着我国市场利率的市场化程度加深，中国货币供给与市场利率之间是正相关关系。最后，根据结论提出建议，在当前经济形势下，应逐步减少政府的干预，向浮动利率政策靠近，从而达到经济持续稳定发展。 关键词：蛛网模型； 经济活动； 凯恩斯需求理论； 货币供应量 ABSTRACT The cobweb model is a dynamic economic analysis of a typical model, it is mainly used for analysis of some production cycle longer the volatility of the relationship between output and price of the product. This paper introduces the economic development in recent years in our country, learn the predecessors research on our countrys economy, and summarizes the cobweb model of ideas and meaning. In addition, also introduced the Keynesian monetary demand theory and former research people out of the money supply function. Money is a medium of exchange, money supply, in economic growth ,also has played the vital role. According to the data from 2006 to 2012, respectively, on the relationship between the money supply and interest rates and money velocity, and then using Matlab software to draw out the cobweb model of money velocity and money supply and interest rates, and analyzed Results show that along with ourcountry market interest rate marketization degree deepening, Chinas currency is a positive relationship between supply and the market interest rates. Finally,according to the conclusion put forward Suggestions, in the current economic situation, should be gradually reduce government intervention, to be near a floating interest rate policy, so as to achieve sustained economic steady development. Key words: Cobweb model; Economic activity; Keynesian demand theory; Money supply; 目 录 TOC \o 1-2 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc390637748 1 前 言 PAGEREF _Toc390637748 \h 1