梅雨期江淮暴雨发生发展动力学机制的初步分析研究-气象学专业毕业论文.docxVIP

梅雨期江淮暴雨发生发展动力学机制的初步分析研究 梅雨期江淮暴雨发生发展动力学机制的初步分析研究 摘要 采用NCEP全球谱模式和常规观测资料对“03．7”江淮地区的两次暴雨过程 的影响系统及其可能机制进行了初步诊断分析，发现梅雨暴雨是受低槽、低涡、切 变线、高、低空急流和梅雨锋区共同影响造成的，该地区维持高能、饱和、潜在不稳定 的环境，有利于暴雨的产生中尺度数值模式(MM5)模拟结果表明梅雨暴雨与 中尺度涡柱、强对流运动密切相关。进一步研究表明中尺度涡柱的形成与高、低空急 流耦合和干侵入有关。位势不稳定和条件性对称不稳定共存使得在口。高值区域的 垂直上升运动和在0。面(梅雨锋区3上的斜上升运动得以产生和维持。视热源、视 水汽汇和螺旋度的诊断分析表明，暴雨发生与它们密切相关。利用雷达、卫星资料 对初始湿度场的改进和四维变分同化对初始风场的改进进行中尺度数值模式 (MM5)模拟，提高了梅雨暴雨模拟能力。 关键词： 暴雨数值模拟诊断分析对流中尺度涡柱干侵入视热源 视水汽汇螺旋度雷达数据卫星数据四维变分同化 PRIMARY PRIMARY RESEARCH．ANALYSIS ON THE DYNAMICAL MECHANSIM OF HEAVY RAIN OVER CHANGJIANG—HUAIHE RIVER BASIN DURING THE MEIVU PERl0D Abstract Based on NCEP and other observational datasets，two severe heavy rainfalls process occurred over Changjiang-Hualhe River basin during July，2003 were primary investigated．The first diagnostic analyses show that the heavy rainfalls are produced together by vortex，shear line and upper and lowerjets，Meiyu front．The condition ofhigh energy，saturation，potential instability is propitious to the form and maintenance ofheavy rainfall．The result ofnumerical simulation by MM5 model shows that heavy rainfall has close relation with meso—scale vortex pole and strong convection．Further research shows that the form ofmeso-scale vortex pole is relate to the coupling ofupper and lowerjet streams，and dry intrusion．Potential instability 血at exists with conditional symmetrical stability make the vertical ascend movement in0。big value area and slope ascend movement in 0 e surface(Meiyu front area) produce and maintain．Diagnoses ofapparent heat source，apparent moist sink and helicity show that the severe heavy rainfall is related with them closely．Use radar and satellite data to improve initial humidity field and four dimensional variational data assimilation to improve initial丽nd field，and simulate it with MM5，which has improved the simulation ability ofMeiyu heavy rainfall． Keywords：heavy rain；numerical simulation；diagnostic analysis；convection： Meso-scale vortex pole；dry intrusion；apparent heat