美赛数模论文英文版.doc

Team # 35565 Page PAGE 2 of NUMPAGES 58 PAGE MCM 2015 Summary Sheet for Team 35565 For office use only T1 ________________ T2 ________________ T3 ________________ T4 ________________ Team Control Number35565 ? Problem ChosenB For office use only F1 ________________ F2 ________________ F3 ________________ F4 ________________ Summary The lost MH370 urges us to build a universal search plan to assist searchers to locate the lost plane efficiently and optimize the arrangement of search plans. For the location of the search area, we divided it into two stages, respectively, to locate the splash point and the wreckage’s sunk point. In the first stage, we consider the types of crashed aircraft, its motion and different position out of contact. We also consider the Earth’s rotation, and other factors. Taking all these into account, we establish a model to locate the splash point. Then we apply this model to MH370. we can get the splash point in the open water is 6.813°N 103.49°E and the falling time is 52.4s. In the second stage, considering resistances of the wreckage in different shapes and its distribution affected by ocean currents, we establish a wreckage sunk point model to calculate the horizontal displacement and the angle deviation affected by the ocean currents. The result is 1517m and 0.11°respectively. Next, we extract a satellite map of submarine topography and use MATLAB to depict seabed topography map, determining the settlement of the wreckage by using dichotomy algorithm under different terrains. Finally, we build a Bayesian model and calculate the weight of corresponding area, sending aircrafts to obtain new evidence and refresh suspected wreckage area. For the assignment of the search planes, we divide it into two stages, respectively, to determine the number of the aircraft and the assignment scheme of the search aircraft. In the first stage,