煤炭物流需求预测的神经网络模型构建及实证研究资源经济与管理专业毕业论文.docxVIP

山东科技大学硕士学位论文摘要 山东科技大学硕士学位论文 摘要 摘要 据国家统计数据，“十五”以来，我国经济实现了持续快速增长，经济的增长拉动 了煤炭需求大幅增加。煤炭生产越来越向晋陕蒙宁等生态环境脆弱的地区集中。我国煤 炭产量占世界总产量的 42%左右，出口量逐年增加，煤炭在一次能源生产结构中仍占据 76%的比例，煤炭的大量需求使得煤炭物流需求迅速增加，然而这个需求到底有多大？ 我们如何去测量？就成为重要的研究课题。本文基于这一研究背景，对煤炭物流需求进 行研究。 由于物流业在我国起步较晚，国家对物流方面的数据统计不全，各行业物流成本真 实数据未能核算，致使各行业对物流成本不能引起足够重视，物流需求的预测研究很少， 企业要想搞清楚物流成本及变化趋势十分困难。本文从煤炭物流需求角度出发对其进行 预测，使得能够根据以往历史数据情况下准确预测物流需求，提高物流成本管理的科学 性和有效性。本文采用的是神经网络预测模型对煤炭物流需求进行预测，通过对影响煤 炭物流需求的影响因素分析，找出各影响因素之间的相关性和各影响因素与煤炭物流需 求的量化指标之间的相关性，用相关性大的影响因素对物流需求进行预测。 关键词：煤炭,物流需求,BP 神经网络，预测模型 Abstract According to the statestatistical data, since fifteen, our country economy in the rapid growth, the economys growth to boost demand for coal greatly increased.Coal production more and more to ShanXi provinces such as NeiMengGu fragile ecological environment on the region. In our countrys coal production accounts for about 42% of the worlds total output, exports increased year by year, coal energy production in a structure of the proportion of 76% still, a lot of coal demand for coal logistics demand increases rapidly. The demand for how much? How do we go to measure?Will be important research subject.The article is based on the research on the background of coal logistics demand for research. Because of the logistics industry started late in our country, the state of logistics data statistics not whole, each profession logistics costs real data fail to accounting, the various industries cant cause enough attention to the logistics demand forecast research rarely, the enterprise to make clear the logistics cost and change the trend is very difficult. This paper from the coal enterprise perspective, the logistics needs to carry on the forecast, makes the coal enterprise can according to former history data accurately predict logistics requirements, improve logistics cost management to be scientific and effective. This article neural network model is of coal logistics needs to carry on the forecast, the effect of coal logistics demand factors