棉花价格研究及预测信息管理与信息系统专业毕业论文.docx

ABSTRACT China’s cotton circulation system has been changed since 1998, Chinese government wants to balance cotton supply demand and to stable cotton price in macro level, some policies has been applied in cotton circulation system, which including cotton industry transmission optimization, national reserve system, import and export policies. There have been several price volatility cases after the reform, especially from 2009 to 2010. This thesis focuses on Chinas cotton price and its key influenced factors by econometrics method in systematic views, especially on following issues: The thesis study the characteristics of cotton price after cotton circulation reform, use some calculated index such as coefficient and fluctuation index to analyze features of Chinas cotton price, result shows that China’s cotton price has volatility and seasonal features. The thesis study the correlations among cotton price, cotton price volatility, cotton production cost, domestic cotton supply and world cotton supply, result shows that China’s cotton price has correlations with cotton production cost in some extend, China’s cotton price volatility has high correlations with world cotton yield variety. Textile industry is the following chain of cotton industry, the thesis study the correlations between cotton price and textile industry output. Co-integration analysis on cotton price and yarn production shows that textile industry demand is not the key factor of cotton price volatility. The thesis studies the correlations between cotton price and other alternatives products price, such as Polyester, Nylon, Viscose Acrylic and Wool, by using co-integration analysis on time series. Result shows that chemical fiber is not an effective cotton alternative. The thesis evaluate Chinas cotton import and export policy and its influence to cotton price, result shows that export quantity has nothing to do with cotton price volatility, effects of import quantity to cotton price are difference i