失代偿期肝硬化预后危险因素分析及相关预后模型比较的研究.doc

Abstract The research of decompensated cirrhosis prognostic risk factors and Comparison of prognostic models 【Results】 Univariate Logistic analysis showed that upper gastrointestinal bleeding, WBC, ALB, Cys C, HDL, Na, A/G were prognostic factors. Upper gastrointestinal bleeding, Cys C, risk of death in patients with a positive correlation (P 0.05), WBC, ALB, HDL, Na, A/ G risk of death in patients with a negative correlation (P 0.05), the rest showed no statistical significance (P 0.05). Multivariate Logistic analysis showed that Serum albumin and sodium were the independent risk factors for prognosis of decompensated cirrhosis. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the risk factors, Serum albumin and sodium were 0.867 and 0.904, compared with the 0.5 difference was statistically significant (P 0.001). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the prognostic model, MELD-Na, MELD, Child-Pugh and Cr-Child Model were 0.812 (95%CI0.715-0.909), 0.802 (95%CI0.703- ), 0.783 (95%CI 0.618-0.885) and 0.732 (95%CI 0.621-0.843), The rest showed no statistical significance (P 0.05). The MELD-Na score to predict prognosis of decompensated cirrhosis patients was superior to Child-Pugh, MELD and Cr-Child. 【Conclusion】 Serum albumin and sodium were independent risk factors for the short-term prognosis in decompensated cirrhosis, the serum sodium level has a higher predictive value for prognosis. Predictive value of MELD-Na score is better than Child-Pugh, MELD, Cr-Child, which has the advantage of objectivity, stability, worthy of widespread use. 【key words】cirrhosis; prognostic models; risk factors Written by: Xiao -qing Wu Supervised by: Chuang -ying Hu IV 目 录 前 言...............................................................................................................1 对象和方法.......................................................................................................2 结 果.............................................................................................