武汉理工大学汽车营销与策划英文课件chapter8 Data Analysis.pptVIP

 Data Analysis In this chapter, we focus on 3 parts: 1. Descriptive Analysis 2. Two-way Analysis of Variance 3. Forecasting 1. Descriptive Analysis 1.1 Index Numbers 1.2 Exponential Smoothing 1.1 Index Numbers Index Number – a number that measures the change in a variable over time relative to the value of the variable during a specific base period Simple Index Number – index based on the relative changes (over time) in the price or quantity of a single commodity 1.1 Index Numbers Laspeyres and Paasche Indexes compared The Laspeyres Index weights by the purchase quantities of the baseline period The Paasche Index weights by the purchase quantities of the period the index value represents. Laspeyres Index is most appropriate when baseline purchase quantities are reasonable approximations of purchases in subsequent periods. Paasche Index is most appropriate when you want to compare current to baseline prices at current purchase levels 1.1 Index Numbers Calculating a Laspeyres Index Collect price info for the k price series (the “basket”) to be used, denoted as P1t, P2t…Pkt Select a base period t0 Collect purchase quantity info for base period, denoted as Q1t0, Q2t0…..Qkt0 Calculate weighted totals for each time period using the formula Calculate the index using the formula 1.1 Index Numbers Calculating a Paasche Index Collect price info for the k price series to be used, denoted as P1t, P2t…Pkt Select a base period t0 Collect purchase quantity info for every period, denoted as Q1t, Q2t…..Qkt Calculate the index for time t using the formula 1.2 Exponential Smoothing Exponential smoothing is a type of weighted average that applies a weight w to past and current values of the time series. (Yi actual value) Exponential smoothing constant (w) lies between 0 and 1, and smoothed series Et is calculated as: How much influence does the past have when w = 0 and when w = 1? 1.