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全面实施营改增的减税效果测算-GlobalTradeAnalysisProjectGTAP.doc

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The effects of the full implementation of Business Tax to VAT reform in China On May 1, 2016, Business Tax to VAT reform was fully implemented in construction, real estate, finance and life service in China. This is the important measures to promote structural reform, especially the supply-side structural reforms, which promote the development of service industry, also can reduce manufacturing cost, promote the adjustment of industrial structure and specialized division of labor and inspire the enterprise innovation vitality. In this paper, we use a general equilibrium model (SICGE model) developed by Chinese state information center to quantitative analyze the effects on the macro economy and various industries of the full implementation of Business Tax to VAT reform. It turns out that the Business Tax to VAT reform increase the level of employment in the short term, which can make the GDP increased by 0.9%, and improve investment returns in the long term, the capital stock can be increased so as to further enhance the sustainability of economic growth. Full implementation of “Business Tax to VAT” reform at the same time promotes the adjustment of industry structure. 1. The development process of Business Tax to VAT reform in China Value-added tax pilot was introduced into China in 1979. The reform of Tax Decentralization in China was implemented in 1994 which set up the tax system of coexistence of value added tax on goods production and business tax on the service. To further deepen the reform of the tax system to solve the problem of double taxation because of the coexistence of value added tax and business tax , in October 2011, the state council carried out the pilot of Business Tax to VAT reform, which gradually changed the business tax on the service to value added tax on the service. From January 1, 2012 to April 30, 2016, Business Tax to VAT reform pilot has covered 3 plus 7 industries, namely, transportation, postal services, telecommunications three cat