医学与统计学联姻预防医学概论.ppt

* Statistics is the Powerful Tool  of Health Professionals 与临床医生治疗个体病人不同，公共卫生考虑的是群体的规律。 公共卫生对统计学天然的亲和，公共卫生专业人员视统计学为必备素养： 设计群体调查 疾病和卫生资源的分布特征 在偶然性的背景中识别危险因素 评价卫生措施 科学决策 * Graunt: The first Life Table (1600’s) One of the first demographers, though by profession he was a haberdasher. Graunt developed early human statistical and census methods that later provided a framework for modern demography. He is credited with producing the first life table, giving probabilities of survival to each age. John Graunt (1620-1674) * Life Table，Evolution for 300 years John Graunt (1620-1674) 开始搜集死亡方面的数据，编制了寿命表，从而创造了人口统计这一学科。 William Farr (1807-1883) 英国出生和死亡注册局医学统计官。他建立了一套常规的死亡人数和死因的汇编系统。他进一步改进寿命表方法，在英国创造了世界上最好的官方生命统计系统。 蒋庆琅Chin-Long Chiang (1914- ) 以现代统计学和随机过程的观点系统研究了古老寿命表的原理，使之成为生物统计学的重要组成部分；以世界卫生组织顾问的身份推动了寿命表在国际范围的应用，直至如今。 * Chin Long Chiang 蒋庆琅 (1914-2014) Professor, University of California, Berkeley and has served as the funder of the Program in Biostatistics. When he retired in l987, the University honored him With “The Berkeley Citation” award for his “distinguished achievement.” * He studied life table from the viewpoint of modern statistics and stochastic process. As a special consultant of the World Health Organization (WHO), he made this ancient tool popularly applied in the world up to now. Chin Long Chiang 100 years old, Jan. 2014 * Richard Doll Austin Hill： Smoking and Lung Cancer  A British physiologist who became the foremost epidemiologist of the 20th century, turning the subject into a rigorous science. He was a pioneer in research linking smoking to health problems. With Austin Hill he was credited with being the first to prove that smoking caused lung cancer and increased the risk of heart disease. Richard Doll (1912 –2005 ) * (1) Case-control study (病例-对照研究) 1948-1949 病例：伦敦20所医院的709位肺癌住院病人； 对照：同一所医院，同性别、年龄