房颤卒中预防的现状与未来-心内科-Nov-公开课件.ppt

全球房颤 REGISTRY研究 - 2011 ESC发布 * The number of patients with AF is anticipated to increase The elderly now make up a larger proportion of the world population than ever before, and recent estimates suggest that by 2025 there will be 1.2 billion individuals worldwide who are ≥60 years of age1 As a consequence, the projected number of people with AF is anticipated to increase. For example, in the US: As part of the ATRIA study, Go and co-workers (2001) estimated an increase to 5.6 million cases up to 2050 in the US, based on prevalence data from a population of 1.89 million adults 20 years of age enrolled in a large health maintenance organization in California USA2 In another study, Miyasaka et al. (2006) described the trends in age-adjusted incidence of AF in a community in Olmsted County, Minnesota, over a 21-year period (1980–2000), with the aim of providing an estimate of the prevalence of AF for the US through to 20503 A total of 6,368 subjects 18 years of age or older were initially identified to have AF; a relative increase in incidence of AF of 12.6% was calculated over the 21-year period (p=0.014) Based on population projections by the US Census Bureau, the number of persons with AF was projected to be 12.1 million by 2050, assuming no further increase in age-adjusted incidence of AF. However, the authors calculated that the prevalence could be as high as 15.9 million if the increase in incidence seen from 1980 to 2000 continued to 2050 It should be noted that the data for the projections reported by Miyasaka and co-workers was based on prevalence rates in a survey which consisted of a primarily Caucasian population.3 In the ATRIA study, the prevalence of AF was significantly higher among white compared with black participants (2.2% vs 1.5%; p0.001) which may partly explain the marked difference in expected prevalence between these two studies Abbreviations AF, atrial fibrillation; CI, confidence interval References WHO. The world is fast aging – have we no