英格兰央行2013年国内外经济分析报告.ppt

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Table 1 Conditioning path for Bank Rate implied by forward market interest rates(a) The data are fifteen working day averages of one-day forward rates to 6 November 2013. The curves are based on overnight index swap rates. (b) November figure for 2013 Q4 is an average of realised spot rates to 6 November 2013, and forward rates thereafter. The MPC’s forecasting record Chart A GDP outturns and projection in the August 2010 Report (a) Revisions, including methodological changes, account for the gap between the red and black lines prior to the vertical dashed line. (b) Based on market interest rate expectations and the assumption that the stock of purchased assets remained at ￡200 billion throughout the forecast period. See footnote to Chart 5.1 in the August 2010 Report for information on how to interpret the fan chart. No adjustment has been made to the fan chart to reflect the effects of methodological changes implemented in the 2011 edition of the Blue Book. Chart B Contributions to the news in the level of real GDP since the August 2010 Report(a) (a) Chained-volume measures. News calculated between 2010 Q1 and 2013 Q2 based on Bank staff projections made in August 2010 that were consistent with the key judgements underlying the MPC’s GDP and inflation forecasts. Those forecasts have been adjusted to be at 2010 prices. Figures in parentheses show 2009 weights in real GDP, which sum to more than 100% because imports detract from GDP. (b) August 2010 projection adjusted to reflect the effects of methodological changes implemented in the 2011 edition of the Blue Book. (c) Includes housing investment, stockbuilding, statistical adjustments and news from unexpected revisions to GDP. (d) News in the MPC’s current GDP backcast relative to the August 2010 modal GDP projection. (a) Based on market interest rate expectations and the assumption that the stock of purchased assets remained at ￡200 bil