从军行﹝其四﹞王昌龄青海长云暗雪山孤城遥望玉门关黄沙百战穿金.pptVIP

Can General Circulation Models be Trusted to Predict Global Warming? Yuk Ling Yung Presentation at the RCEC Academia Sinica Nov 28 2007 Today’s Outline What is Greenhouse Effect? （Review) GCM Prediction of Future (IPCC) NCAR Simulations (Deser, NCAR) Solar Cycle (Yau, CUHK) Cloud Feedback (Li, CIT) Long Period Oscillations (Heavens, CIT) Conclusions (Poetry) What is Greenhouse Effect? Absorption in Earth’s Atmosphere Today’s Outline What is Greenhouse Effect? GCM Prediction of Future NCAR 50 years Solar Cycle Cloud Feedback Long Period Oscillations Today’s Outline What is Greenhouse Effect? GCM Prediction of Future NCAR 50 years Solar Cycle Cloud Feedback Long Period Oscillations Atmospheric Radiative Forcing CO2 Increase and Ozone Depletion Today’s Outline What is Greenhouse Effect? GCM Prediction of Future NCAR 50 years Solar Cycle Cloud Feedback Long Period Oscillations Today’s Outline What is Greenhouse Effect? GCM Prediction of Future NCAR 50 years Solar Cycle Cloud Feedback Long Period Oscillations Today’s Outline What is Greenhouse Effect? GCM Prediction of Future NCAR 50 years Solar Cycle Cloud Feedback Long Period Oscillations Conclusions Short term prediction reasonably good Low frequency variability (associated with oceans) poor Non--linear effects may be underestimated Thanks Yung’s Group at Caltech Clara Deser (NCAR) David Camp (CalPoly SLOB) K. K. Tung (UW) Duane Waliser (JPL) 司馬光 (1019-1086 ) 夫事未有不生於微而成於著，聖人之慮遠，故能謹其微而治之，眾人之識近，故必待其著而後救之；治其微則用力寡而功多，救其著則竭力而不能及也。 ﹝資治通鑑?卷一﹞ It happens then as it does to physicians in the treatment of consumption, which in the commencement is easy to cure and difficult to understand; but when it has neither been discovered in due time nor treated upon a proper principle, it becomes easy to understand and difficult to cure. The same happens in state affairs; by foreseeing them at a distance … the evils which might arise from them are soon cured; but when, from want of foresight, they are suffered to increase to s