基于改进灰靶模型的区域土地利用冲突强度诊断以南昌市为例.docxVIP

基于改进灰靶模型的区域土地利用冲突 强度诊断以南昌市为例 强度诊断 以南昌市为例 赵杰 罗志军 赵越 曹丽萍 冉凤维 江春燕 江西农业大学国土资源与环境学院/江西省鄱阳湖流 域农业资源与生态重点实验室 摘要： 评估区域土地利用冲突强度，揭示引起冲突的内在机理，对促进区域可持续健 康发展具有重要意义。以南昌市为例，基于PSR模型构建了区域土地利用冲突强 度诊断指标体系，并引入指标权重对传统灰靶模型进行改进，构建基于爛权的 改进灰靶模型，进而对南昌市2006-2015年土地利用冲突强度进行诊断。结果 表明：（1） 2006—2015年，南昌市土地利用冲突压力靶心度值持续增长且变化 率不断加大，表明南昌市城市化进程在不断加快，发展势头强劲，同时给土地 利用带来一定压力。（2）南昌市土地利用冲突强度在波动中呈缓慢增强的趋势, 综合靶心度值由2006年的0.796上升至2015年的0.82变化率仅为3. 86%,得 益于全市在推进城市化进程屮对土地生态环境的重视。（3）与加权函数法相比, 改进灰靶模型得到的靶心度值的变化趋势与其基本一致，说明改进灰靶模型也 能够用于土地利用冲突强度诊断，为该类问题的研究提供参考。 关键词： PSR模型;灰靶模型;土地利用冲突;南昌市; 作者简介：赵杰（1992—）,男，硕士生，主要从事土地管理、3S应用方面研 究，azzszz2206163. com; 作者简介：罗志军，副教授，博士，luozjl0@163.com。 收稿日期：2017-05-26 基金：江西省科技重人专项（20114ABG01100） Diagnosis of the Intensity of Regional Land Use Confliet Based on Improved Grey Target Model: A case of Nanchang City ZHAO Jie LUO Zhi-jun ZHAO Yue CAO Li-ping RAN Feng-wei JIANG Chun-yan Jiangxi Provincial Key Laborstory of Agricultural Resources and Ecology in Poyang Lake Basin/College of Land Resources and Environment, Jiangxi Agricultural University; Abstract： Assessme nt of the int ensity of regional land use conf lie t and revela tion of the in here nt mecha nism of land use conf lict are of grea t sig ni fica nee for susta in able and healthy developme nt of the region. Beised on the rela ted research resuIts, this paper has constructcd the evaluation index system of regional land use conflict intensity based on PSR model. Index weight was introduced to improve the traditional gray target model. Then an improved gray target model based on enlropy weight was used to diagnose the intensity of land use conflict of Nanchang City in 2006—2015. The results showed as follows. ( 1) From 2006 to 2015, the pressure approaching degree of land use conflict in Nanchang continuecl to increase and the rate of change was increasing, indicating that the process of urbanization in Nanchang was accelerating and the development momentum was strong, which brought about some pressure to land use. ( 2) The intensity of