京津冀地区汽车运输碳排放影响因素研究-中国环境科学.pdf

中国环境科学 2018,38(10) ：3689~3697 China Environmental Science 京津冀地区汽车运输碳排放影响因素研究 吕 倩* ( 中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院,北京 100083) 摘要： 以空间相关性和空间异质性为基础,构建 SLM-STIRPAT、SEM-STIRPAT 和 GWR-STIRPAT 模型,对京津冀地区汽车运输碳排放进行测算和影 响因素分析.结果表明:京津冀地区汽车运输碳排放存在显著空间相关性和空间异质性.人口对汽车运输碳排放呈正向影响;人均 GDP 对货运碳排放和 总量碳排放呈正向影响,对客运碳排放呈负向影响,城镇化水平对汽车运输碳排放呈负向影响.第三产业增加值对客运碳排放和总量碳排放呈正向影响, 对货运碳排放呈负向影响,人口对张家口市汽车运输碳排放影响最为显著;人均 GDP 对秦皇岛市和沧州市的汽车运输碳排放影响最为显著;城镇化水平 对秦皇岛市的汽车运输碳排放影响最为显著;第三产业增加值对秦皇岛市的汽车运输碳排放影响最为显著. 关键词：京津冀地区；汽车运输；碳排放；STIRPAT 模型；空间计量模型；地理加权回归模型 中图分类号：X511 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2018)10-3689-09 Study on the driving factors of vehicle transport carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. LÜ Qian* (School of Management, China University of Mining Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China). China Environmental Science, 2018,38(10) ：3689~3697 Abstracts ：Based on the spatial correlation and spatial heterogeneity, the SLM-STIRPAT model, SEM-STIRPAT model and GWR- STIRPAT model were constructed to measure and analyze the driving factors of vehicle transport carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The results showed that: There were significant spatial correlation and spatial heterogeneity in vehicle transport carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The population size and had a positive impact on the vehicle transport carbon emissions. The per capita GDP had a positive impact on the vehicle freight transport and total vehicle transport carbon emissions, had a negative impact on the passenger transport carbon emissions. The urbanization level had a positive impact on the vehicle transport carbon emissions. The added value of the tertiary industry had a positive impact on the vehicle passenger transport and total vehicle transport carbon emissions, had a negative impact on