管理经济学-托马斯版Chap004.pptVIP

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * Managerial Economics 4-* Managerial Economics Copyright ? 2008 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Managerial Economics, 9e Managerial Economics Thomas Maurice ninth edition 4-* Copyright ? 2010 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 4: Basic Estimation Techniques McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright ? 2011 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Basic Estimation Parameters The coefficients in an equation that determine the exact mathematical relation among the variables Parameter estimation The process of finding estimates of the numerical values of the parameters of an equation Regression Analysis Regression analysis A statistical technique for estimating the parameters of an equation and testing for statistical significance Intercept parameter (a) gives value of Y where regression line crosses Y-axis (value of Y when X is zero) Slope parameter (b) gives the change in Y associated with a one-unit change in X: Simple Linear Regression Simple linear regression model relates dependent variable Y to one independent (or explanatory) variable X Simple Linear Regression Parameter estimates are obtained by choosing values of a b that minimize the sum of squared residuals The residual is the difference between the actual and fitted values of Y: Yi – ?i The sample regression line is an estimate of the true regression line Sample Regression Line (Figure 4.2) A 0 8,000 2,000 10,000 4,000 6,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 Advertising expenditures (dollars) Sales (dollars) S ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Sample regression line ?i = 11,573 + 4.9719A ?i = 46,376 ei Si = 60,000 Unbiased Estimators The distribution of values the estimates might take is centered around the true value of the parameter The estimates a do not generally equal the true values of a b a are random variables computed using