编程任务估算的艺术.ppt

* * Your ability to decompose a large task is related to how familiar you are with it. If you are unable to decompose the task, this is a sign you should seek help (collaboration). * * 1. Find a method that works for you. 2. Note that your project may use a different method, so be sure to have a convenient mapping between them. * * * Note that tracking time spent on a task allows you to identify how much time you’re spending on the task in a given day. It can help lead to other questions. * * * * Velocity is work (complexity points, effort hours, etc.) / unit time (day, week, sprint, or release). Calculating velocity makes the connection between the estimate and the schedule. Keep in mind that this can be at different scales. Typically user-stories operate on a Complexity Point / Ideal Days level, while tasks operate on an Effort Hours level. * Remember, velocity is concerned about complexity or effort hours / unit time while MRE is concerned about the accuracy and precision of your estimate. While you CAN game the system, since the data is really only for your own consumption, you’re not really helping yourself if you do. This works using both complexity points and effort hours * 1. Note: By updating the work remaining you’re not changing the original estimate. Updating future estimates != Updating Work Remaining. * 1. You cannot expect the project or the project’s choice of project management tools to do this for you. This WILL require work on your part. * * * 1. We didn’t just make this stuff up. 回顾 我是如何做的? 我是如何做的? 问以下问题： 你工作有多快？ 你的估算与实际结果有多接近？ 我是否忘了对有利于下次任务估算的某事项作出预测？ 对结果进行分析 有用的计算 速度 你工作有多快？ 相对误差大小 (MRE) 你的估算与实际结果有多接近？ 例子 – Part 3a, 速度 速度是指单位时间完成的工作量 分数: 7 XP / 3个日历日 = 2.3 XP / 日 工作量: 9.5 小时 / 3个日历日= 3.2 小时 /日 日期 任务 原始估算 日历日总数 总速度 4/7/2008 A 3 XP 5 4/8/2008 B 2 XP 2 4/9/2008 C 5 XP 8 0.66 XP /日 例子 – Part 3b, 相对误差大小（MRE） MRE 等于ABS (实际 – 预期) / 实际 ABS (9.5 – 7) / 9.5 = 0.26 任务 最佳 预期 最差 实际 MRE A 1 B 5 C 10 D 5 7 10 9.5 26% 更新未来预算 不要为了得到一个更好的结果数据，而在任务结束时，对原