2004—2013：中国棉花生产率增长、技术进步与效率变化7600字.docVIP

2004—2013：中国棉花生产率增长、技术进步与效率变化7600字 　摘要：运用DEA的Malmquist指数分析方法对中棉花TFP的增长及其构成进行实证分析，阐释了棉花TFP变化的基本特征。结果显示，①中国棉花产业的全要素生产率年际波动较大中国棉花TFP的年均增长率达到2.7%，其中技术进步的年均增长率为3.1%，技术效率的年均增长率为-0.3%；②技术进步是推进TFP增长的主要动力。由于近年来棉花技术缺乏创新，对TFP的促进作用越来越乏力；③纯技术效率过低是技术效率出现负增长的主要原因；④中国棉花TFP的增长具有区域不平衡的特征。各棉花主产区技术进步水平的不同导致TFP的增长存在显著差异，新疆已经成为中国棉花TFP增长最高的棉区，改变了三大棉花区域齐头并进的局面。 　　关键词：棉花；Malmquist指数；TFP 　　中图分类号：F326.12 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2016）08-2158-05 　　DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2016.08.061 　　Abstract： With the Malmquist index approach in data envelopment analysis （DEA），the growth and constitution of total factor productivity （TFP） of china’s cotton inwere empirically analyzed to illustrate the change features of the total factor productivity of cotton. The results showed that， first， the annual rate of TFP growth in China’s cotton industry fluctuated strongly.From 2004 to 2013，the annual rate of TFP growth of Chinas cotton was 2.7%，in which the annual growth rate of technical progress was 3.1%， the annual growth rate of technical efficiency was -0.3%. Second， the technical progress was the prominent stimulus of TFP growth. For lack of innovation in recent years，the stimulative effect of cotton technology on TFP have become more and more weak.Three，the pure technical efficiency was too low，which was the major cause for negative growth of technical efficiency；Four，there was regional unevenness in the TFP growth of China’s cotton.The different technical progress rates of different cotton production regions resulted in significant difference of TFP growth，when Xinjiang province have the highest TFP growth rate，which broke the original balance among three major cotton production regions. 　　Key words： cotton；Malmquist index；total factor productivity 　　棉花作为中国重要经济作物之一，不仅一直是主产区农民重要的收入来源，也在国民经济发展中发挥着重要作用。中国棉花主要分布在西北内陆、长江流域和黄河流域三大棉区，种植面积和总产量均在世界范围内名列前茅，是世界公认的棉花生产大国。根据相关资料显示，2013年中国棉花实现单产1 323.6 kg/hm2，是改革开放时期的3.14倍。中国之所以能成为世界棉花生产大国，与棉花科技进步是分不开的，尤其是转基因棉花品种的引入、覆膜栽培和滴灌技术的