概率与概率分布讲义.ppt

3 As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... 3 As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... 正态分布（实例） 【例】设X~N(5，32)，求以下概率 (1) P(X ?10) ； (2) P(2X 10) 解： (1) (2) 二项分布的正态近似 二项分布的正态近似 当n 很大时，二项随机变量X近似服从正态分布N{np , np(1-p)} 对于一个二项随机变量X，当n很大时，求 P(x1?X?x2)时可用正态分布近似为 为什么概率是近似的 .0 .1 .2 .3 0 2 4 6 8 10 x P(x) 正态曲线增加的概率 正态曲线减少的概率 二项概率：矩形的面积 正态概率：曲线下从3.5到4.5的面积 增加的部分与减少的部分不一定相等 二项分布的正态近似（实例） 【例】100台机床彼此独立地工作，每台机床的实际工作时间占全部工作时间的80%。求 (1)任一时刻有70～80台机床在工作的概率 (2)任一时刻有80台以上机床在工作的概率 解：设X表示100台机床中工作着的机床数，则X~B(100,0.8)。现用正态分布近似计算，np=80，npq=16 (1) (2) 本章小结 定义试验、结果、事件、样本空间、概率 描述和使用概率的运算法则 定义和解释随机变量及其分布 计算随机变量的数学期望和方差 计算离散型随机变量的概率和概率分布 计算连续型随机变量的概率 用正态分布近似二项分布 用Excel计算分布的概率 结 束 As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be able to ... As a result of this class, you will be