改进的危险货物道路运输风险评价指数模型及其应用.pdf

改进的危险货物道路运输风险评价指数模型及其应用1 2 陈跃 ，张玉玲 （交通运输部公路科学研究院，北京 100088） 摘 要： 开展危险货物道路运输风险评价可有效降低事故发生概率与后果损失，对 提升企业安全管理水平具有重要意义。为提高危险货物道路运输风险评价的可靠性 与实用性，对前人所做的风险分级指数模型进行了改进，将腐蚀性因子加入到模型 中，修正和完善了原模型有关参数及其取值，并给出了安全措施补偿因子的简化算 法，构建了新的危险货物道路运输风险评价指数模型。进一步地，阐述了模型在企 业风险管理实务中的应用步骤与注意事项，突出了模型的简单实用性与良好的柔性 特点。最后通过实例，展现了所提出的改进模型的可行性与有效性。 关键词： 危险货物道路运输；风险评价模型；指数模型；改进；应用 中图分类号：U491 Improved Risk Evaluation Index Model of Road Transportation of Dangerous Goods and Its Application Chen Yue, Zhang Yu-ling (Research Institute of Highway Ministry of Transport, Beijing, 100088） Abstract: Risk evaluation of road transportation of dangerous goods can effectively reduce the probability and consequence of the transportation accident, thus which is very important to improve the safety management level of transportation enterprises. In order to increase the reliability and practicality of existing methods, this paper improves the previous risk evaluation index model, which introduces corrosion factors into the previous model. Then, the parameters and their values in previous model are improved, and simplified algorithm for safety precaution compensated factors is proposed, resulting in a new risk evaluation index model of road transportation of dangerous goods. Further, the procedures and some matters needed attention are given in the application of the model in the risk management practice of the transportation enterprises, which emphasizes the simplicity, practicality and flexibility of the improved model. Finally, the given case study shows the improved risk evaluation index model is feasible and efficient. key words: road transportation