敏感设备电压暂降失效可能性非可加性测度和评估方法.PDFVIP

第 38 卷 第 19 期 电力系统保护与控制 Vol.38 No.19 2010 年 10 月 1 日 Power System Protection and Control Oct. 1, 2010 敏感设备电压暂降失效可能性非可加性测度与评估方法 1 2 1 李 皖 ，桂贤明 ，肖先勇 （1.四川大学电气信息学院，四川 成都 610065；2.四川省电力公司通信自动化中心，四川 成都 610004） 摘要：测度选取是准确评估敏感设备电压暂降失效可能性的基础，失效事件基本属性与评估指标是关键。在概率测度要求的 可加性条件不满足时，采用满足非可加性条件的可能度为测度更符合实际。利用模糊统计和多项式拟合法对样本做处理，确 定敏感设备电压耐受能力隶属函数，再由模糊安全事件隶属函数确定原理确定设备失效可能性分布函数，以此建立设备失效 度评估模型。以实测样本为依据，对 PC 机进行评估，并与现有概率法和模糊随机法进行比较，仿真结果证明该方法正确有 效，更客观地反映实际情况，可满足工程应用需要。 关键词：电压暂降；敏感设备；失效可能性；非可加性测度；失效度；可能性分布函数；实测对比 Non-additive measure and assessment method of the failure possibility of sensitive equipment due to voltage sag 1 2 1 LI Wan ，GUI Xian-ming ，XIAO Xian-yong （1. School of Electrical Engineering Information，Sichuan University，Chengdu 610065，China ； 2. Telecommunication Automation Center of SEPC，Chengdu 610004，China ） Abstract ：The choice of measure is the foundation of accurate assessment of sensitive equipment failure possibility due to voltage sag and the basic attribute of failure event and assessment indices are the key ．When the additivity of probability measure is unable to be fulfilled，the use of possibility measure which is possessed of non-additivity is more realistic ．The membership function of sensitive equipment voltage tolerance capability is determined after using fuzzy statistical method and polynomial fitting method to dispose samples，and the possibility distribution function of equipment failure is deduced by the determination principle of membership function of f