汇丰银行-全球-宏观策略-DM利率观点_抑制热情-2019.9.6-31页_2mb.pdf

6 September 2019 用户上传 更多免费报告请查看研报客 DM Rates Ideas Fixed Income Rates Curb your enthusiasm Global  With the ECB meeting looming, we focus on hedges in core and non-core EGBs to protect from potential disappointments  This could also cause the front end of EURUSD xccy swaps to steepen, aided by increased SSA issuance  We look for the Euro inflation curve to flatten as the relative weakness of the front end appears excessive Buy 15Y Germany versus Austria Page 3 Spreads in the Eurozone core are tight, and vulnerable to widening if the size of QE disappoints. Given high expectations, the risk/reward of this widener is attractive. Chris Attfield Strategist Spain: sell the belly of the 5-10-30Y fly Page 5 HSBC Bank plc christopher.attfield@ History suggests the Spanish curve could bow out at the 10-year point if the ECB +44 20 7991 2133 disappoints on QE, but tends to bull flatten on a positive surprise. Wilson Chin, CFA Fixed Income