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NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES
CHINAS GDP GROWTH MAY BE UNDERSTATED
Hunter Clark
Maxim Pinkovskiy
Xavier Sala-i-Martin
Working Paper 23323
/papers/w23323
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
April 2017
We are very grateful to Michelle Jiang, Lauren Price and Rachel Schuh for superb research
assistance. This paper reflects solely the opinions of the authors and not necessarily of the Federal
Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve System, or the National Bureau of Economic
Research.
NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been
peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies
official NBER publications.
© 2017 by Hunter Clark, Maxim Pinkovskiy, and Xavier Sala-i-Martin. All rights reserved. Short
sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission
provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source.
Chinas GDP Growth May be Understated
Hunter Clark, Maxim Pinkovskiy, and Xavier Sala-i-Martin
NBER Working Paper No. 23323
April 2017
JEL No. F0
ABSTRACT
Concerns about the quality of China’s official GDP statistics have been a perennial question in
understanding its economic dynamics. We use data on satellite-recorded nighttime lights as an
independent benchmark for comparing various published indicators of the state of th
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