麦肯锡中国移动总体战略英文.pptVIP

02 PD China Mobile Telecoms Service Industry 020403.ppt EVOLUTION OF MOBILE RADIO STANDARDS IN CHINA LEADS TO THREE 3G ALTERNATIVES * Available by end of 2002 ** Assuming dual mode GSM/W-CDMA solution Source: Various vendors; McKinsey analysis 2G 2.5G IS-95A GSM CDMA2000 1x RTT CDMA (China Unicom) GSM (China Mobile, Unicom) IS-95B GPRS China timing Present 2002 W-CDMA** (UTRA FDD) CDMA20003x RTT TD-SCDMA 3G 2003 TSM* 2003-2004 OUTLOOK FOR 3G STANDARDS IN CHINA All 3 standards likely to exist in some capacity in China W-CDMA TD-SCDMA CDMA2000 China outlook Aggressively marketed by MNC vendors Remains the most widely known standard and will probably exist in China Favored by government as the first 3G standard to be deployed in China Seen as Chinese technology, which is very important to development of Chinese IT industry Unicom planning to upgrade CDMA network to 1XRTT in early 2002 Support in China Ericsson Nokia Operators Huawei Government Operators (reluctant) Datang Siemens Nortel Huawei (moderate support) Qualcomm Lucent Samsung ZTE China Unicom Government and operator support for TD-SCDMA Delayed availability of FDD spectrum Availability of W-CDMA outside of Japan (including dual mode handsets) Technology development Terminal development (chipset) Lower market awareness and confidence by operators Not clear 3G license for CDMA 2000 would be granted, or if existing CDMA license allows upgrades to 1XRTT and 3XRTT Main obstacles in China Source: McKinsey analysis; Industry interviews 3G SPECTRUM HAS ALREADY BEEN ALLOCATED FOR W-CDMA AND TD-SCDMA, ALTHOUGH FDD SPECTRUM (W-CDMA) IS CURRENTLY USED FOR WLL IN SOME CITIES 20 mhz 30 mhz 60 mhz 15 mhz 60 mhz Void TDD FDD (uplink) Satellite TDD Void FDD (downlink) Void 1885 1900 1920 1980 2010 2025 2110 2170 2200 Air interface Mode Spectrum range Total spectrum Bandwidth Availability TD-SCDMA TDD 1900 - 19202010 - 2025 35 mhz 1.6 mhz Available now W-CDMA FDD 1920 - 1980 (UL)2110 - 2170 (DL) 60 mhz 5.0