从“日美”看“中美”，“第一阶段”协议后贸易摩擦未来.docxVIP

目录 起于贸易，却不止于贸易 ································ ································ ················ 1 中美贸易摩擦已成常态 1 本轮贸易摩擦不同于过往 3 日美贸易摩擦 ································ ································ ······························· 4 日美贸易摩擦期间的经济环境 4 日美贸易摩擦的 3 个阶段 7 广场协议 10 以史为鉴，同与不同 ································ ································ ····················· 11 日本的经验：产业升级和产能转移 12 投资建议 15 消费制造：供应链海外转移短期受益 17 原材料板块：建材行业或成为潜在受益领域 18 日本汽车 19 日本工业机器人 24 中国农产品行业 26 中国稀土行业 30 通信行业的国产替代 40 电子产业链转移 46 风险因素 53 插图目录 图 1：美国对进口中国产品分清单增速跟踪 2 图 2：美元兑人民币中间价 3 图 3：