水晶球软件使用Crystal Ball.ppt

* * * * * Project ManagementSession 9Crystal Ball OPIM 5270 OPIM 5270 – Spring 2015 ppt课件 Session 9 Goals Understand why risk must be analyzed Know pros / cons for three ways to analyze risk Identify random variables in models Know the four steps of a simulation process Generate random numbers with Crystal Ball Use the four steps of a simulation process Explain how Crystal Ball supports Proj. Mgmt. OPIM 5270 – Spring 2015 ppt课件 Most real-world business situations today are probabilistic, but the decision models used to deal with them are deterministic. How to deal with randomness? Ignore it Simplify problem to make it analytically tractable, get solution, then ignore real-life complications Find a way to obtain an approximate solution to real-world problems Dealing with Randomness OPIM 5270 – Spring 2015 ppt课件 Monte Carlo simulation is a method by which approximate solutions are obtained to realistic (and therefore complicated) problems This is in contrast to analytical methods, which obtain exact solutions to highly stylized problems Tradeoff between rigor and relevance Monte Carlo Simulation OPIM 5270 – Spring 2015 ppt课件 What is this? Y = f(X1, X2, …, Xk) Often, the values for one or more input cells are unknown or uncertain This creates uncertainty about the value of the output cell Simulation can be used to analyze these types of models Introduction to Simulation OPIM 5270 – Spring 2015 ppt课件 A random variable is any variable whose value cannot be predicted or set with certainty. Many “input cells” in spreadsheet models are actually random variables. For example: the future cost of raw materials future interest rates future number of employees in a firm expected product demand Decisions made using uncertain information often involve risk. What risks? Random Variables Risk OPIM 5270 – Spring 2015 ppt课件 Using expected values for uncertain cells tells us nothing about the variability of the performance measure. Suppose an $1,000 investment is expect