HS-全球-投资策略-固定收益资产配置：两半场比赛-2020.3.9-31页.pdf

9 March 2020 Fixed Income Asset Fixed Income Rates Allocation Game of two halves Global  In discussing ‘a game of two halves’, we are admitting there is currently a lot we don’t know  So we leave our Bund and Treasury yield forecasts for end- 2020 at -60bp and 1.50% and adjust near-term views  This brings into focus the tension in the forecasts across regions and through timelines G4 yields: a game of two halves Page 4 Further central bank rate cuts could see G4 government bond yields test new lows in Steven Major, CFA the near term, but there is a limit to how far this can go. We highlight the relative over- Global Head of Fixed Income Research extension of US Treasuries versus European bonds and continue to favour the ultra- HSBC Bank plc steven.j.major@ long segment of the US TIPS market as a diversification play. +44 20 7991 5980 UK gilts moving towards zero yield Page 14 Our view on the UK gilt market recognises that slightly more than 50bp of rate cuts are already priced in before year-end. As these might be delivered earlier than we had previously expected, 10-year gilt yields could fall to Japanese levels (around zero) before rising to 40bp in the s