巴克莱-美股-投资策略-美国中小型企业2020年展望-2019.12.10.pdfVIP

FOCUS Equity Research 10 December 2019 U.S. Small Mid Cap Strategy 2020 Outlook: Grinding Higher MACRO STRATEGY U.S. Small Mid Cap Strategy We expect small caps to grind higher in 2020. Our 2020 year-end price target for Venu Krishna, CFA Russell 2000 is 1780 (~9% return) driven by a modest rebound in earnings (+5% ex- +1 212 526 7328 financial EBITDA growth) from depressed levels and multiples (EV/EBITDA) grinding venu.krishna@ higher (to 13.75x from current 13.1x). An “easy soft patch,” characterized by a BCI, US reasonably healthy domestic growth environment and an accommodative Fed, coupled Elias Krauklis with a reduction in trade war risks, should pull small caps higher. We believe these +1 212 526 9376 conditions will allow small caps to outperform large caps in 2020 after a long period of elias.krauklis@ underperformance as the spotlight shifts to their attractive valuations relative to large BCI, US