基于灰色预测的网络舆情预测优化模型.pdfVIP

中国科技论文在线 基于灰色预测的网络舆情预测优化模型 荣自瞻，金跃辉** （北京邮电大学网络与交换技术国家重点实验室，北京 100876） 5 摘要：网络舆情预测问题是网络舆情研究领域中的一项重要研究点。本文通过广泛研究，并 结合实际研究需要，首先提出了一种网络舆情指数体系，并对体系中的各级各类指标进行了 介绍。随后，本文提出了一种基于灰色预测的网络舆情预测优化模型。该模型是在灰色预测 模型的基础上，结合网络舆情预测的实际特点进行了改进和优化。该模型不但可以保证较高 的预测精度，还能有效处理网络舆情发展中可能出现的波动性和拐点问题，克服了灰色预测 10 模型仅适合预测单调序列的不足，减少了拐点对传统灰色预测模型预测精度的影响，具有较 高的可行性和有效性。 关键词：网络舆情；预测模型；灰色预测；优化 中图分类号：TP391 15 An Optimization Forecast Model of Online Public Opinion Based On Gray Forecast RONG Zizhan, JIN Yuehui (State Key Laboratory of Network and Switch, Beijing University of Posts Telecommunications) 20 Abstract: In this paper, an index System of Online Public Opinion is proposed first, each index of which is introduced in detail. Then this paper proposed an optimization forecast model of Online Public Opinion based on Gray Forecast. This model makes some improvements and optimizations based on the basic Gray Forecast Model. The optimization model can not only ensure higher prediction accuracy, but also overcome that the gray forecasting model is only suitable for the 25 forecast of monotone sequences. Because the Online Public Opinion may have fluctuations and it may also have some inflection points, the optimization model reduces the negative effects on the forecast accuracy brought in by the inflection points, and it have high feasibility and effectiveness. Key words: Online Public Opinion; Forecast Model; Gray Forecast; Optimization 30 0 引言