地理科学外文翻译论文-.docVIP

Accident Analysis and Prevention 42 (2010 1359–1369 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Accident Analysis and Prevention j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e :w w w.e l s e v i e r.c o m /l o c a t e /a a p Ex-ante assessment of the safety effects of intelligent transport systems Risto Kulmala ? VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland,P.O.Box 1000,FI-02044VTT,Finland a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 29December 2008 Received in revised form 27February 2010Accepted 2March 2010Keywords:Safety Assessment Ex-ante Vehicle system Intelligent transport a b s t r a c t There is a need to develop a comprehensive framework for the safety assessment of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS.This framework should:(1cover all three dimensions of road safety—exposure,crash risk and consequence,(2cover,in addition to the engineering effect,also the effects due to behavioural adap-tation and (3be compatible with the other aspects of state of the art road safety theories.A framework based on nine ITS safety mechanisms is proposed and discussed with regard to the requirements set to the framework.In order to illustrate the application of the framework in practice,the paper presents a method based on the framework and the results from applying that method for twelve intelligent vehi-cle systems in Europe.The framework is also compared to two recent frameworks applied in the safety assessment of intelligent vehicle safety systems. ? 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1.Introduction The fast development of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTduring the last decades has led to a fast imple-mentation of new applications and services in different domains.In transport,the application of ICT has led to Intelligent Trans-port Systems (ITS.Many such systems are already widely used,either as infrastructure based such as variable message signs,sig-nal control,automated enforcement,motorway control systems,variable speed limits,and electronic toll collection,or as vehi