中国和中亚南亚地区的贸易潜力及影响因素研究——基于随机前沿引力模型.pdfVIP

摘 要 中亚和南亚地区分别是 “丝绸之路经济带”和 “21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿 线的重要组成部分，也是中国的重要贸易伙伴，更是中国在西北、西南方向对外 开放的重点地区。近年来，中国和中亚南亚两个地区的贸易规模都呈现明显上升 的趋势，但是地区内政治争端和基础设施落后等一系列阻力仍然存在。本文对中 国和中亚南亚地区的贸易情况进行分析，并且基于研究结果提出合理的建议，具 有一定的现实意义。 本文首先概述21世纪以来中国和中亚南亚地区贸易发展情况，并且引入指 标从总量和产业层面来分析中国和中亚南亚地区的贸易规模和贸易结构，从定性 角度来探究中国和中亚南亚地区存在的贸易机会。然后本文通过构建随机前沿引 力模型从定量分析的角度来分析中国和中亚、中国和南亚国家的贸易效率和贸易 潜力以及其影响因素。 研究结果显示，中国和中亚南亚地区的出口贸易效率和总贸易效率都呈现波 动上升的趋势但整体都比较低，贸易潜力比较大。经过测算中国和南亚地区有着 更大的贸易潜力和双边拓展空间，中国对中亚地区有着更大的出口拓展空间。贸 易潜力的决定因素有贸易两国人均GDP、人口、地理距离、共同边界以及贸易 国是否为内陆国；世界贸易组织、基础设施、贸易成本以及制度距离变量都对贸 易非效率有着显著的影响。最后根据研究结论和实际情况本文提出了相应的政策 建议。 关键词 南亚；中亚；随机前沿；贸易潜力 I Abstract The two regions of CentralAsia and South Asia are important parts of the “Silk RoadEconomicBelt” andthe “21st Century Maritime Silk Road”，which arethekey areas of Chinas opening up to the outside world in the southwest and northwest. In recent years,the scale oftradebetween China andthetworegions of CentralAsia and South Asia has shown a clear upward trend. However,regional political disputes and poor infrastructure remain a series of obstacles.Thispaper makes a study on bilateral trade between China and Central Asia, China and South Asia and puts forward reasonable suggestions based on the research results, it has certain practical significance. This paper analyzes the trade opportunities between China and CentralAsia and South Asia from a qualitative perspective. This paper first summarizes the trade development of China and CentralAsia, China and SouthAsia since the 21st century, and introduces the index to analyze the trade scale and trade structure between China and CentralAsia and SouthAsia fromthetotal amount andtheindustrial level.Finally, thispaper constructs a stochastic frontier gravity modelto explore thetrade efficiency and trade potential of China and Central Asian countries, China and South