赞比亚棉花出口的决定因素研究.pdfVIP

摘 要 增加一个国家的商品和服务出口可以促进就业，改善国际收支状况，增加外 汇收入，促进一国经济增长。自 1964 年独立以来，赞比亚的经济增长一直受到 铜矿出口的影响，然而铜矿出口容易受到诸如国际铜价波动和国际需求变化等外 部冲击的影响。鉴于此，赞比亚政府采取了一些经济政策，旨在通过多元化战略， 发展非采掘部门(如农业部门)和促进非采掘部门(如棉花出口) 出口，减少对铜矿出 口的依赖。棉花出口收入的特点是逐年变化，尚不清楚赞比亚棉花出口收入波动 的主要原因是什么。因此，本研究试图确定影响赞比亚棉花出口增长的因素。 本论文基于 1990-2019 年间的年度时间序列数据，采用自回归分布滞后 (ARDL)模型实证分析，结果表明棉花出口与实际有效汇率、贸易伙伴的实际收入 或国内生产总值(GDP) 、外国直接投资、实际利率和世界价格之间存在协整关系。 ARDL 分析表明，在短期内，棉花出口受贸易伙伴的实际收入、实际利率、实际 有效汇率和世界价格的影响。在长期，棉花出口受贸易伙伴实际利率、实际有效 汇率和实际 GDP 的影响。格兰杰因果检验显示，棉花出口受农业占GDP 比重影 响，而且棉花出口受汇率变动和进口国GDP 影响较大。 本研究建议采取政策措施支持棉花出口的增长,维护稳定的宏观经济环境,包 括稳定的汇率,增加预算支持,改善监管和参与区域一体化的新市场等措施。 关键词：棉花出口，成长，国内因素；外在因素；赞比亚 II ABSTRACT An increase in a country’s exports of goods and services can boost employment, improve the balance of payment position, increase foreign exchange earnings and is a conduit through which a country can foster economic growth. Zambia’s economic growth since independence in 1964 has been supported by copper exports which have been vulnerable to external shocks such as copper price fluctuations and changes in external demand for copper. In view of this, the Zambian government has pursued macroeconomic policies that are aimed at reducing dependence on copper exports through diversification to non-extractive sectors, such as the agriculture sector and promotion of non-traditional exports such as cotton exports. Cotton exports earnings have been characterized by year on year variations. It is not clear what the major factors behind the fluctuations in Zambia’s s cotton export earnings are. This study hence sought to determine factors that affect the growth of cotton exports in Zambia. The study utilized annual time series data that cov